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The latest round of violence between Hamas and Fatah signal the need for
diplomats to consider decoupling the West Bank and Gaza Strip. With
Hamas battling Fatah for control of the Gaza Strip, the Palestinian
territories could well be on the way toward splitting into a largely
secular West Bank and Islamist Gaza Strip. Even if a temporary truce is
reached between the two warring parties, and the shelf-life of such
truces has proved short, the fundamental ideological differences that
divide the two Palestinian territories will persist. Such differing
worldviews will have a potentially major impact on the larger
Israeli-Palestinian dispute.
From their starkly contrasting vantage points, the West Bank’s leaders
will continue to view their dispute with Israel as a political matter.
The Gaza Strip’s Islamists will see the dispute in terms of religious
obligation. The West Bank’s leaders will seek political settlement to
bring about a better future. The Gaza Strip’s leaders will seek only
total victory. Consequently, negotiations with the West Bank’s leaders
would be the “art of the possible,” while any talks with the Gaza
Strip’s leadership would be the “art of the impossible.” Given this
reality, international and regional diplomats should seriously examine
treating the historic Israel-Palestinian dispute, not as a single matter
subject to a grand, if not idealistic, final settlement at some time in
the future, but as two separate disputes: one between Israel and the
West Bank, and the other between Israel and the Gaza Strip. Then, the
diplomatic process could proceed on a more realistic path that focuses
on achieving progress where it is possible, while limiting the spread of
violence from areas where progress is not feasible.
Even if the latest round of fighting wanes, the disparate political
dynamics that govern the West Bank and Gaza Strip have already created a
de facto two-entity reality. Furthermore, no matter the outcome of the
latest round of Hamas-Fatah combat, the ideological differences that
separate the two areas are likely to grow with the passage of time. In
turn, the de facto two-entity reality will only harden, making diplomacy
that ignores this reality even more futile.
The ideological differences between Fatah and Hamas are unbridgeable.
Fatah’s position, as expressed in the 1993 Israel-Palestine Liberation
Organization Agreement is that it is “time to put an end to decades of
confrontation and conflict, recognize their [Israelis’ and
Palestinians’] mutual legitimate and political rights, and strive to
live in peaceful coexistence and mutual dignity and security to achieve
a just, lasting and comprehensive peace settlement and historic
reconciliation through the agreed political process.” Even as Yasser
Arafat ultimately proved unwilling to reach a historic final settlement,
Fatah had staked out a position that allowed for mutual recognition and
peaceful coexistence.
Hamas, on the other hand, embraces a radical triumphalist approach.
Hamas rejects Israel’s right to exist and seeks only its destruction.
Furthermore, Hamas defines its rejectionism as a matter of religious
obligation. The Hamas Charter declares, “The Islamic Resistance Movement
believes that the land of Palestine is an Islamic Waqf consecrated for
future Moslem generations until Judgment Day. It, or any part of it,
should not be squandered: it, or any part of it, should not be given up.
Neither a single Arab country nor all Arab countries, neither any king
or president, nor all the kings and presidents, neither any organization
nor all of them, be they Palestinian or Arab, possess the right to do
that. Palestine is an Islamic Waqf land consecrated for Moslem
generations until Judgment Day.” The Charter also proclaims,
“Initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and international
conferences, are in contradiction to the principles of the Islamic
Resistance Movement. Abusing any part of Palestine is abuse directed
against part of religion.”
A diplomatic formula that ignores the irreconcilable differences that
currently divide the predominantly Fatah-led West Bank and Hamas-run
Gaza Strip has very little chance to succeed. Failure to consider the
emerging two-entity reality will only thwart the possibility of
diplomatic success, limit the possibility of containing the spread of
violence from the Gaza Strip, and provide time for radical Islamists to
accumulate power in the West Bank. A new approach that seeks to
consolidate gains made in the West Bank from past diplomatic accords and
then incrementally advance the West Bank along a political horizon
toward full-fledged sovereignty, coupled with a tough approach that
erects a “firewall” around the radical Islamist “statelet” that is
emerging in the Gaza Strip holds the most realistic prospect of
promoting stability and advancing political reconciliation. Such a
two-track approach would leverage the West Bank’s leaders’ relative
pragmatism to reach negotiated agreements, allow the pragmatists to
strengthen their standing from diplomatic achievements, and provide
mechanisms by which the West Bank could develop a viable and sustainable
economy and functioning political and legal institutions necessary for
full sovereignty. An approach that seals off the Gaza Strip to all but
humanitarian assistance would insulate surrounding areas from the spread
of the kind of violence and radicalism that currently plague the Gaza
Strip.
Some might argue that such an approach would lead Gaza toward “state
failure.” However, it is already a failed “statelet.” Hamas’ illiberal
domination of that area has suffocated investment flows, barred economic
development, and made the rule of law all but impossible. Violence is
widespread, legal authority is practically non-existent, and 63% of the
Gaza Strip’s residents live in poverty.
Others might assert that such an approach would require Israel to invade
the Gaza Strip. They would warn that such an approach would lead to the
kind of insurgency that bedeviled Israeli forces in Lebanon and
currently hinders U.S. forces in Iraq. They would also caution that
beyond the Gaza Strip, Israel’s invasion of that area would give new
fuel to regional and global radical Islamist movements. Those arguments
are actually irrelevant. Containment of the Gaza Strip does not require
an Israeli invasion. It entails sealing off that area’s borders and
waters. Egypt and Israel both have the means and the national security
interests to do so. Both are eager to curtail the spread of instability
from the Gaza Strip. Both are concerned about growing Iranian influence
over Hamas. Therefore, they have genuine reason to work together to
safeguard their common interests.
Nevertheless, even as the Gaza Strip is sealed off, the diplomatic
process should leave available an avenue by which the Gaza Strip could
later have a chance to rejoin the larger negotiating process or
eventually be absorbed into an increasingly sovereign West Bank, perhaps
modeled after West Germany’s absorption of East Germany at the end of
the Cold War.
There would be the possibility that visible political and economic
progress in the West Bank could eventually inspire a new pragmatic
leadership to gain sufficient popular support within the Gaza Strip to
topple Hamas, whose rule would bring only hardship and economic misery
for the isolated territory. Smart diplomacy always leaves openings to
seize upon positive developments that might occur. A process that
decouples the West Bank and Gaza Strip should be no different.
To bring about such a process, the Madrid Quartet (United Nations,
European Union, Russia and the United States) should negotiate quietly
behind the scenes with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and/or other
Palestinian leaders who embrace the Madrid Quartet’s basic principles to
secure their consent for the two-track approach. As noted above, such an
approach could be temporary e.g., an avenue for returning to a joint
framework would be left open.
In the end, if there is a silver-lining to the current Hamas-Fatah
fighting, it is that this conflict has put into the open the reality
that the West Bank and Gaza Strip are truly two distinct entities. A
diplomatic approach that embraces this reality, offers perhaps the best
chance to unfreeze the status quo that benefits none of the parties. If
the new approach can achieve progress in the West Bank and contain the
spread of instability from the Gaza Strip, the seeds for a new regional
architecture that would be more conducive to political reconciliation
could be planted. At a time when chaos reigns in an increasingly
sectarian Iraq, possible ethnic conflict simmers in Lebanon, and Iran
continues its rise toward possible regional hegemony, the potential
benefits from decoupling the West Bank and Gaza Strip are made even more
attractive than they would otherwise be.
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